Monday, June 7, 2010

Election Day Math - a Roadmap to Victory

This is roughly how my district breaks down:
Dem = 64%
Rep = 8%
Decline to state = 20%
Ratio = 8:1
So, if we assume that the D/S are the same ratio, an election result of 85% to 10% is what we would expect in November, just as it has been in the past half dozen elections or so.

More interesting:
40% White
30% Black
15% Asian
15% Hispanic
The registration % among the last 2 groups is 5% each.
That is where the opportunity lies. Sadly, my campaign is a shoestring operation, so cannot afford fancy election consultant analysis. However, even I can see that the chance for Republican victory is Hispanic and Asian voter registration.

Currently, there are about 29,000 registered Republicans in CD9 which has a total population of 600,000, total registered voters is 350,000.
Total estimated Hispanic + Asian = 180,000.
If Republicans can register 16% of them as new Republicans, the number of registered Republicans in CD9 would double.

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