What the Hell Kind of Campaign Are You Running, Anyway?

Well, now that I have won the primary and my campaign is well underway, it is time to answer this question. Activists, party regulars, and consultants have wanted to ask this question, but have mostly too polite to ask in such a blunt way.
OK, I will answer.
There are several elements to a traditional political campaign:
*fund raising
*campaign headquarters
*phone banks and robocalls
*precinct captains and workers
*bumper stickers and yard signs
*radio ads and other media buys
*slate cards and door hangers
*fundraising envelopes
Thus far, my campaign has none of these, and it seems that it never will. Those who have run in my district before have tried all these to little effect. This time, I am trying something different. The centerpiece of my campaign is this blog along with my website and a Facebook page.
Will it work? We shall see.

I Won the Primary!

Well, OK, I was uncontested. I will take victory any way I can get it. The number of voters who voted in my district was barely 25% of the turnout in the 2008 General Election. If the vote in November is identical to this Primary, my opponent will get 85%, and I will get 11%. This % is in line with the past half dozen elections in CD9, where the Republican gets 9-13%. The interesting point is that these were very different people with very different campaigns, but yet the results are all pretty similar.

Truthfully, I am having a blast. More seriously, right now my voice carries weight. What I say and what I believe matters, and I can influence people’s thinking. That is why my position papers have top priority with me. I am doing the best job I can to clearly and unambiguously lay out the conservative position on as many subjects as I can, especially the primacy of the Constitution. Planting the seeds of conservativism is easy; caring for the seedlings and nourishing them into mighty trees is another story.

What effect has the campaign had on my personal life? Well, I suppose you can be hyperactive about it, but I have a regular job, and my campaign fits comfortably in with my personal life at nights and on weekends, although my hobbies have been crowded out for the time being. Running is much easier than I anticipated (of course, winning is more difficult), and I recommend it highly to anyone who cares about our country and the future.

In CD9, it is important to be realistic about what is possible. This is the most Democratic district in the entire state of California, and one of the 10 most Democratic districts in the entire House of Representatives. So, if some districts do turn Republican, my district is dead last in line.

Election Day Math - a Roadmap to Victory

This is roughly how my district breaks down:
Dem = 64%
Rep = 8%
Decline to state = 20%
Ratio = 8:1
So, if we assume that the D/S are the same ratio, an election result of 85% to 10% is what we would expect in November, just as it has been in the past half dozen elections or so.

More interesting:
40% White
30% Black
15% Asian
15% Hispanic
The registration % among the last 2 groups is 5% each.
That is where the opportunity lies. Sadly, my campaign is a shoestring operation, so cannot afford fancy election consultant analysis. However, even I can see that the chance for Republican victory is Hispanic and Asian voter registration.

Currently, there are about 29,000 registered Republicans in CD9 which has a total population of 600,000, total registered voters is 350,000.
Total estimated Hispanic + Asian = 180,000.
If Republicans can register 16% of them as new Republicans, the number of registered Republicans in CD9 would double.